Voters in the Old Dominion approved a temporary amendment to the state constitution allowing Democrats to draw new congressional lines favoring the party in all but one of its 11 House districts. Democrats currently hold a 6-5 edge, and the new map will hold until the process reverts back to a bipartisan redistricting commission after the 2030 Census, The Hill reported.
Top figures on both sides of the aisle waded into the referendum amid the national back-and-forth over redistricting kick-started by US President Trump last year in Texas. Former President Obama urged Virginians to approve the measure this week, while Trump made a last-minute call to reject the amendment.
A possible ruling from the Virginia Supreme Court, however, could still invalidate Tuesday’s vote — which represents Democrats’ last chance to pass new congressional lines as both parties battle for control of the House in this year’s midterms.
Both sides spent big on the referendum, which was the only matter on the April 21 ballot.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) previously said his party would put in “whatever it takes,” signaling openness to spend “tens of millions of dollars” to get the redistricting measure across the finish line amid the high-stakes fight for House control.
More than $64 million went into Virginians for Fair Elections, the “yes”-vote group, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).
That includes almost $40 million from House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with Democratic leadership, and $12 million from The Fairness Project, a left-leaning advocacy group focused on ballot initiatives.
A “no”-vote group, Virginians for Fair Maps, brought in around $21 million, according to the latest VPAP numbers. A group linked to tech billionaire and GOP donor Peter Thiel also funneled funds to oppose the measure in the state, drawing criticism from Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones (D).
“This campaign was built in just five months — overcoming nearly $40 million spent on spreading MAGA lies and misinformation to confuse voters, navigating unprecedented legal challenges to stop Virginians from having a say, and asking voters to grapple with a complex issue for our democracy,” Virginians for Fair Elections campaign manager Kéren Charles Dongo said in a Tuesday statement.
“But in the end, voters cut through the noise, made their voices heard, and voted YES,” she added.
With more than 95 percent of the vote in on Tuesday night, roughly 1.5 million Virginians voted “yes,” while around 1.45 million voted “no,” according to Decision Desk HQ — a 51 percent to 49 percent split.
The early vote looked slightly redder than what was seen in last year’s general election in the state, signaling a potential path for the “no” campaign to win. The Election Day vote, though, wasn’t red enough to secure a win.
Still, Republicans and anti-gerrymandering voices are touting “no”-vote turnout as a strong message of resistance to the Democrat-led plan.
“Even in defeat, this is a powerful message,” said Brian Cannon, co-chair of the advisory council to the bipartisan group No Gerrymandering Virginia. “Despite being outspent by well over $60 million and facing biased ballot language, over a million Virginians stood up against a partisan power grab.”
Richard Hudson, chairman of GOP’s House campaign arm, also pointed to the tight margin, arguing it “reinforces that Virginia is a purple state that shouldn’t be represented by a severe partisan gerrymander.”
“Even under this map, Republicans will hold our majority based on our record cleaning up Democrats’ mess and a historic war chest to litigate the Democrats’ failures,” Hudson said, though he called on Virginia courts to take action.
The Virginia results are a boon for big names in the party, including Obama and Jeffries as well as Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.).
Spanberger, who won her seat last year as Democrats reveled in a string of off-year and special election momentum, had been seen as more restrained than some other Democrats in her approach to the measure, though she made her support new maps clear.
Tuesday’s win helps relieve some of the focus on the partisan political fight that has consumed her first few months in office.
A March poll by George Mason University’s Schar School and The Washington Post found a drop-off in Spanberger’s approval rating. Though some observers shrugged it off as a blip, others called it a stark change so soon after taking office, amid the redistricting war.
“Virginia voters have spoken, and tonight they approved a temporary measure to push back against a president who claims he is ‘entitled’ to more Republican seats in Congress. Virginians watched other states go along with those demands without voter input — and we refused to let that stand. We responded the right way: at the ballot box,” Spanberger said in a statement on Tuesday.
The governor also stressed that she’s “committed to ensuring” that the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission “gets back to work” after the 2030 Census, reverting to the system Virginians approved in 2020.
Though voters gave their stamp of approval to the new maps on Tuesday, the redistricting push could still face legal challenges.
For one, the Virginia Supreme Court gave the green light to proceed with the special election after a GOP challenge earlier this year. The court, however, left the door open for a final ruling after the referendum.
Though legal experts have said the justices are unlikely to overturn the will of the voters, there’s a chance that challenges to the amendment could complicate Democrats’ path to implementing the new congressional lines.
An impending decision from the US Supreme Court also looms large. The high court is weighing a case that could weaken a section of the Voting Rights Act, a move that could change how congressional maps are drawn and open the door for another round of redistricting nationally.
If the court does curtail the landmark law, it’s unlikely that states could take action before the midterms, but the decision could impact the redistricting war in the cycles ahead.
With primaries underway in states across the country, Virginia offered Democrats what’s likely their last chance to redistrict for this year’s midterms.
The national redistricting war was kicked into high gear last year in Texas, where Republicans passed a new map to net the party as many as five seats.
The blue stronghold of California responded with a redraw of its own, effectively canceling out the would-be Republican gains in the Lone Star State. The Texas plan didn’t need voter approval, but California’s push passed overwhelmingly at the ballot box.
Republicans also got new, friendlier maps in North Carolina and Missouri — and Democrats got a boost from a court-ordered map in Utah.
This cycle’s redistricting tit-for-tat is expected to draw to a close in Florida, where state lawmakers are scheduled to convene next week for a special session on the matter.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who called the session, had set the meeting for the spring in anticipation of the Supreme Court’s pending Voting Rights Act decision, but Republicans have signaled they could move forward even without a ruling.
“If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s dummymander in Texas,” Jeffries said in a Tuesday statement shared by Punchbowl.
If Florida is able to redistrict ahead of the midterms, the Sunshine State could counter the Virginia changes, further complicating the fight for the House majority this fall.