In an analysis published on Friday, the WFP said the continuation of the conflict’s effect on oil prices has “profound implications” for global food security.
The agency asserted that estimations made in March, warning that 45 million people would fall into acute food shortages if oil prices remained at $100 a barrel by the end of June, were beginning to materialize.
“While globally food prices – as measured by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Price index – only have seen a slight increase so far, substantial food price rises are already being felt in fragile countries,” the WFP found.
“The findings indicate that the crisis is generating significant spillovers, particularly through fuel, food price and income shocks and trade disruptions. As these factors interact with preexisting vulnerabilities they quickly translate into visible impacts on food security and livelihoods,” it added, Al Jazeera reported.
The US-Israeli unprovoked war of aggression against Iran, which broke out on February 28, has rattled oil markets as the continued near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped oil tankers from completing their journeys.
Households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka are among the most seriously affected and face mounting pressure due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade, the report found.
In Somalia, 6.5 million people – roughly a third of the population – are expected to face severe hunger in 2026. Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected, the WFP said.
An additional 2.5 million people in Somalia and a similar number in Afghanistan could be unable to afford a basic food basket.
In 2026 in Somalia, the WFP projects that the ongoing conflict will leave “almost 60 percent of all households unable to afford to purchase essential needs, compared to 47 percent in 2025”.
In Afghanistan, “up to 2.3 million” people could become food insecure, adding to the 13.8 million people who were food insecure before the war, the report reads.
Both countries are reliant on imported energy and food.
Meanwhile, in Sri Lanka, projections found that up to 1.3 million people could be at risk of being unable to meet their basic food needs.
The analysis added that the global humanitarian system was also facing a “double squeeze” amid rising delivery costs, leading to coverage gaps, and estimated that the WFP will serve 1.5 million fewer people than originally planned for 2026.
“If the conflict continues for six months, more than 9 million people could lose assistance, driven by a combination of higher operational costs and rising local food prices,” it warned.