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UK Chancellor’s Headroom ‘to Halve Because of War against Iran Inflation, Weak growth’

  • September, 21, 2026 - 15:13
  • Other Media news
UK Chancellor’s Headroom ‘to Halve Because of  War against Iran Inflation, Weak growth’

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – UK Chancellor John Healey will face pressure to raise taxes or cut spending at next month's Budget, as soaring borrowing costs because of the war against Iran and weaker growth has wiped nearly £12 billion off the Government's fiscal headroom, according to a new report.

Other Media

The latest KPMG economic outlook estimates that Healey could be left with headroom of about £12 billion in the autumn, down from £23.6 billion at the time of the spring forecast, PA news agency reported.

It said rising borrowing costs on the UK's debt after the Middle East conflict has already cut about £9 billion off the headroom, with sluggish growth and expected downgrades from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) likely to reduce it by about another £2 billion.

KPMG said, "The Chancellor will have limited scope to provide significant support for growth or the cost of living when the Budget is delivered next month, as higher borrowing costs and weaker growth have reduced the Government's fiscal headroom.”

"Restoring the previous level of headroom could require tax rises or spending reductions,” KPMG added.

"With the Government committed to not increasing taxes on working people, the Chancellor may need to consider other tax measures," KPMG said.

Long-term borrowing costs have been surging amid a gilt sell-off driven by inflation worries caused by the war against Iran and rising expectations of a rise in interest rates by the year end.

These factors will combine to leave Healey with "limited room for manoeuvre" at his October 28 inaugural Budget, KPMG said.

The group is predicting UK interest rates will likely rise in November, from 3.75% to 4%, but then start falling back next summer as the impact of energy prices on inflation fades away.

It is forecasting inflation, which rose to 3.1% in August, will rise to about 3.5% in the autumn and peak at about 4% in the first quarter of next year.

KPMG is penciling in growth of 1.3% overall in 2026, but with slower growth in the final six months as inflation weighs on household spending.

Growth will edge up to 1.4% next year, according to the group.

 
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